Japan's March exports show technical rebound only

Japan's export rebound in March, after a truly terrible performance at the beginning of the year, is not a sign that the country has steered through the crisis, says Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.

Exports fell to ¥4.18 trillion ($42.6 billion) in March 2009, a 45.6% decline year-on-year. Crucially though, that is an improvement on February's export figures, which fell a record 49.4% from the same month in 2008. According to Bloomberg News, the consensus among economists was for a 46.4% drop for March.

Also in March, imports dropped by 36.7% to ¥4.17 trillion and the trade surplus fell 99% year-on-year to ¥11 billion, the same value as in February. The trade balance defied analysts' expectations of a ¥5 billion deficit. 

Fiscal year 2008 (which ended in March 2009) saw Japan register a yearly trade deficit for the first time in 28 years, as a result of rising oil costs and slowing exports.