Some analysts argue that the current subprime crisis is a ôblack swanö event. A black swan is a metaphor for something that could not exist and stems from the ancient western belief that, prior to the discovery of black swans in Australia in the 17th Century, all swans were white. A black swan is used to describe the occurrence of a highly unlikely event with unprecedented and devastating effects.
I disagree. The subprime crisis itself is not a black swan event, though the resultant credit crunch and confidence crisis may qualify. This is because all the events and factors leading up to the current crisis were known.
From a macro perspective, the Asian...
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