Should your recent rating action on the Philippines to 'negative' be interpreted as a prelude to a full downgrade
An outlook change is a way signaling to folks in the marketplace that the possibility of a rating change has increased. We publish figures that show on average outlook changes proceed an actual ratings change more than 50% of the time.
But it's not inevitable. There's a chance the Philippine government is regaining control of public finances. If we thought it was inevitable, then we would have lowered the rating straightaway.
Indeed, the rating level of the Philippines has been the same since the Asian financial crisis, but we have changed the outlook several times.