High commodity prices are the new normal

This week, Rio Tinto and Xstrata, two leading miners, both announced sharp falls in revenues and profits for the first half of the year. They blamed the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the eurozone crisis for causing volatile markets and another cyclical downturn in commodity prices.

However, they should be cheered by recent research from HSBC, which argues that the outlook for producers remains buoyant barring a collapse in economic activity.

Many large emerging economies are either in or are about to enter the “commodity-intensive stage of development”, and that should keep commodity prices well above historical average levels, according to Paul Bloxham, chief economist...