Do you see US monetary policy tightening any time soon
We think the US will definitely continue to err on the side of keeping policy easy, even though the debate on the durability of the global recovery will continue for the rest of the year. There are interesting parallels with 2002-2007 when easy Federal Reserve monetary policy contrived to give the US relatively high growth, the European Central Bank was constantly criticised for being behind-the-curve and carry trades were rife. Importantly, the strongest currency trend over that period was dollar weakness. So although some believe the dollar downtrend has raced too far ahead, we don't think that valuation warnings will be enough to stop...
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