At a discussion with a key group of Asia's most powerful private banks in Singapore yesterday (Monday), we ended the discussion by getting a show of hands on various predictions for 2004. The nine who participated were American Express Private Bank; Bank Sarasin-Rabo; BNP Paribas Private Bank; Citigroup Private Bank; Credit Suisse Private Banking; Dresdner Private Bank; MeesPierson; UBS and Global Strategies (not a private bank, but an advisory firm for private clients).
Here are the seven questions we asked and the results:
Will gold be higher at year end than today?
Yes = 9
No = 0
Will the Fed raise rates in 2004?
Yes = 7
No = 2
Will the yen go through 100 (to the dollar) before year end?
Yes = 6
No = 3
Will the euro go through 130 (to the dollar) before year end?
Yes = 9
No = 0
Will the renminbi revalue / have its band widened before the end of the year?
Yes = 6
No = 3
Will the Hong Kong property market be higher by year end?
Yes = 6
No = 3
Will Japanese equities be higher by year end?
Yes = 5
No = 4
