Analysis of a commodity is a reasonably straightforward matter. Production is reviewed to see what changes have taken place, similarly with consumption. An adjustment is then made for global economic conditions and whether there is likely to be a shortfallsurplus in demand or supply compared with previous years. On that basis a forecast is delivered. A currency differs in that interest rates are taken into account and consideration of governmental policy is thrown into the mix. This is clearly a gross simplification of the process otherwise we could expect all estimates to be 100% correct -- something that is rarely, if ever, achieved.
However, what do you do about a product that is a...
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