Fixed-income outlook from Barclays Capital

What are your views on the outlook for growth in the region in 2011?
We expect the Asia locomotive to remain on track, albeit slowing somewhat next year. Our forecast is for GDP growth in emerging market Asia to moderate to 7.6% in 2011 from 9.1% this year, before reaccelerating to 7.8% in 2012 – with growth continuing to be driven largely by China and India. We see this as a mid-cycle slowdown, reflecting capacity constraints, lower external demand and a gradual withdrawal of fiscal policy support. Countering these factors, drivers of business investment remain robust, as do the drivers of consumption expenditure, enabling Asian growth to remain well above levels seen in other regions.