CLSA economist foresees huge collapse in Chinese growth

The upside is that slowing growth may enable multinationals to make major inroads in China.

GDP growth in mainland China could collapse to between 3% and 5% come 2007 says CLSA's distinguished chief economist Dr Jim Walker. The figure, which he revealed at CLSA's China Forum this week, visibly stunned an interview room full of Chinese journalists given how much lower it is than official government pronouncements.

Conventional wisdom states that any drop in growth below 7% would cause social collapse in China, since unemployment from restructuring would be growing faster than new business. The upshot of such a scenario could be buy-ins by foreign multinationals, which would make the acquisitions made in Thailand and Korea post-1997 crisis look like a car boot sale....

FinanceAsia has updated its subscription model.

Registered readers now have the opportunity to read 5 articles from our award-winning website for free.

To obtain unlimited access to our award-winning exclusive news and analysis, we offer subscription packages, including single user, team (2-10 users), or office-wide licences.

To help you and your colleagues access our proprietary content, please contact us at subscriptions@financeasia.com, or +(852) 2122 5222

Article limit is reached.

Hello! You have used up all of your free articles on FinanceAsia.

To obtain unlimited access to our award-winning exclusive news and analysis, we offer subscription packages, including single user, team (2-10 users), or office-wide licences. To help you and your colleagues access our proprietary content, please contact us at subscriptions@financeasia.com, or +(852) 2122 5222