bond-bear-awakening

Bond bear awakening

How much further will bond yields rise? Ping An's head of research, Chi Lo, investigates US and China scenarios.
Summary
This global economic expansion has gone on stronger and longer than expected. Global inflation has fallen so low that it may not be compatible with prolonged economic expansion.

Global real bond yields are rising for good reasons economic growth but not for bad inflation. Hence, their impact on stocks should be limited.

Volatility in bond prices is increasing, as sentiment swings between inflation and growth scares. This should create investment and trading opportunities in bonds.


Bond markets

Chinese yields are also poised to rise due to rising inflation and increasing bond supply.
Mean reversion suggests that US 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 6% in the coming months.

Equity markets
The rising yields...
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