ASEAN exports weaken

HSBC research has found that ASEAN-5 export growth is at its weakest point in five years, partly reflecting the impact of appreciating currencies. Expect a slow recovery.
According to HSBC, export growth out of ASEAN-5, which includes Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines, halved during the course of 2006 and is currently running at its lowest rate for nearly five years.

The bank says this partly reflects a slight dip in the world trade cycle, although the impact of currency appreciation over the last couple of years is also taking its toll to varying degrees. It says Singapore exports appear to be particularly sensitive to exchange rate moves, perhaps helping to explain why they have slowed more than most.

HSBC constructed a number of models to explain export growth in the different ASEAN countries. It also constructed composite lead...
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