And the forecast is...more forcasts

Since the New Year, we have been bombarded daily with forecasts from economists and strategists working at the world's leading banks. Quite why they bother to try to predict what will happen is beyond me. But on they go merrily forecasting away as if they actually knew what was going to happen to the US economy or to the strength or weakness of the rupiah. Quite simply, they cannot know what will happen, and anyone who puts any stroe by what they predict is disturbingly gullible.

To give them some credit, they do allow harrassed editors to fill up column inches that otherwise would go empty in this waste land of financial news that hapens every year between Western and chinese new Years.

But rather than take seriously what these pundits are trying to predict, we should look at why they are making the predictions and a much more interesting picture emerges. Obvioulsy it isthe economists and strategists job to make big calls, get them tright and win the bank a whole load of broking commission and investment banking fees.

So who has been saying what? A quick glance over the past weeks' papers reveals that Samomon smth BArney, expect there to be lots of reforms in te Chinese A-share market, hopefully those include allowing foreign investment banks to underwrite deals.