FA poll: Asia growth will disappoint in 2012

Our readers are not sure how 2012 will pan out, but a slim majority expect to be disappointed.
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Prepare for disappoint in 2012, say FA readers
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<div style="text-align: left;"> Prepare for disappoint in 2012, say FA readers </div>

Last week we asked our readers for their 2012 economic growth outlook. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the only clear result was uncertainty, with votes cast fairly evenly across the three main choices we offered: above consensus, below consensus, consensus.

POLL RESULT

How will Asia's economy fare during 2012?

Growth will surprise on the upside
 29%

Growth will be in line with consensus forecasts
 26%

Growth will be even worse than expected
 32%

There will be no growth
 14%

Given the uncertainty facing the global economy in 2012, most of which originates outside Asia, our readers seem to think that there is a good chance the consensus will be wrong, which seems reasonable. The only question is whether the surprise is on the upside or the downside.

By a narrow margin, readers mostly expect growth to disappoint this year. China will be the key. A slowdown in Chinese growth below the 8.6% consensus would have knock-on effects across the region, primarily in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

For the non-Japan Asia region, the consensus for 2012 growth is around 7%, which is roughly in line with 2011 growth — or just a touch below.

A surprising 14% of readers predicted an apocalyptic "no growth" in 2012.

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