After the rally, baht bonds still far from a bear market

Two factors can prompt a bear bond market: the new administrationÆs management of banking NPL, and planned bond issuance this quarter.

Bangkoks earlier than expected announcement of its intention to issue seven-year baht bonds by the end of the first quarter hardly dented last weeks rally of baht government bonds.

The local bond market actually rallied strongly, with 10-year yields moving from 5.8% to 6.10%. Mostly this was due to the 50 basis point bp Fed cut on 31 January, as well as a downward reduction of Thailands 2001 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%.

The rally found supporting parameters from the favorable auction results of government bonds and Financial Institution Development Fund FIDF bonds. The average yield of the LB157A auction on 31 January, for example, was 5.65%,...

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