what-will-be-the-economic-cost-of-the-earthquake-in-indonesia

What will be the economic cost of the earthquake in Indonesia?

The quake has killed nearly 5,000 people, injured twice that many and displaced up to 200,000 - now economists must determine how it will impact the nation's economy.
Asia's deadliest natural disaster since the 2004 tsunami is thankfully drawing international attention and aid - but how much will Saturday's (May 27) 6.3 magnitude earthquake in the Central Java region of Indonesia hurt the nation's economy?

It has killed at least 4,611 people and roughly 10,000 people are injured - and that number will probably continue to rise in the next few days. Approximlatey 200,000 people have been made homeless by the quake. These are all uncountable costs to the economy that will take their toll over years to come.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who has been on diplomatic tours around the world of late, went straight to work seeking economic aid relief from overseas. Neighbouring nations such as Singapore have already sent emergency supplies. And pledges of aid are on the rise û the UK is offering up $7 million, the European Commission promises to pay $3.8 million, the US has pledged $2.5 million, China $2 million and Canada $1.8 million.

Analysts say the estimated economic loss to the world's largest archipelago - based on massive property and infrastructure damages - is Rp2.5 trillion ($270 million). Meanwhile the government estimates that distributing aid and then reconstructing Yogyakarta will cost about Rp1 trillion ($110 million). Anecdotal evidence suggests that as many as one in 10 buildings in the city have been damaged.

But the overall impact on GDP growth is expected to be limited. Yogyakarta, which generated about 0.9% of GDP in 2004, is better known for its historical sites than for its business centres. Macquarie Securities' analysts forecast in a research report on Monday (May 29) that in terms of the impact on listed companies, they expect only BRI to be affected due to its rural-based lending. Still the earthquake will hit the bottom line of its growing tourism industry - so rebuilding the historic sites will be crucial to getting the city back on track.

But what's worrying is that this may not be Yokyakarta's last encounter with Mother Nature's crueller taunts. She preys on Indonesia, given that it sits on the Pacific Ocean's ôring of fire zoneö û an area chock-o-block with active volcanoes and tectonic faults. This quake, which was centred in the Indian Ocean, was within 100 kilometres from Mount Merapi, a volcano which some scientists say is on the verge of erupting - and could damage even more of Yokyakarta if it does. As a result of the predicted doom from Mount Merapi aid agencies already had shelter, food, water and sanitation equipment ready in Yogyakarta city in case the volcano erupted. This significantly sped up relief for the quake victims. But it also means Indonesia may be poised for yet another disaster on its doorstep soon.
¬ Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.
Share our publication on social media
Share our publication on social media