Will China re-value the renminbi?

The renminbi (CNY) has been under appreciating pressure, as seen in China's surging foreign exchange reserves, due to strong capital inflows and current account surplus. The sharp and steady decline in the CNY non-deliverable forwards reflects increasing confidence in the CNY, and hence reducing its risk premium, which fell to negative levels at some point recently (see chart). Anecdotal evidence also shows that the CNY/USD black market rate had appreciated above the official exchange rate.