Don't believe the hype, raps Freris

BNP''s chief economist and head of fixed income research on why China''s role in the global economy is exaggerated.

The possibility of an overheating China has emerged as one of the pre-eminent concerns of the 2004 economic calendar. Many point to the investment-fuelled 9.7% GDP growth in the first quarter as a key indicator that the PRC could pop at any moment. Others suggest that excessive reliance on imports of raw materials and accelerating inflation are signs the China story could take a hit.

Speculation about what kind of landing China will experience, when it will happen and how the Asian and global economies will weather the expected blow, are rampant. But there is a near unanimous consensus that China will experience a slowdown in GDP growth to annualised range...

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