Buyers of Nasdaq stocks finally took a stand Friday. But can a one-day rally erase the negative psychology that was built up during four days of selling?
The huge comeback Friday of biotech and chip stocks suggests the Nasdaq has likely put in a short-term low, said Terry Gabriel, technical analyst at IDEAglobal.com.
Going forward, however, he believes it will be hard for the Nasdaq to establish a clear trend. Get used to more wild price swings, he warned.
The problem with many technology stocks, Gabriel continued, is that they've built in great earnings expectations for the remainder of the year. If there's any disappointment, he said, many stocks can get hit hard.
In addition, interest in tech stocks has waned during the spring and summer months over the past years and investors are concerned that the same trend will occur this year, said Ned Collins, head of trading at Daiwa Securities.
"People are shifting into other areas of the market," Collins said. And these fast rotations have produced additional volatility in the marketplace.
There will be tremendous churning in the months ahead, according to Gabriel.
Still, he thinks NYSE stocks will be able to establish an upward trend. In a way, he said, value stocks are back in favor.
The Nasdaq's 10 percent fall over four trading sessions this week washed out a lot of speculators in the market, observers say. Going forward, selectivity will be key.
"There will be a shift into higher quality names," said Louis Parks, senior managing director at Raymond James. And upcoming earnings releases, he continued, will help differentiate the the winners from the losers.
"ItÆs still a market of stocks, to coin a phrase. Old tech companies, like Dell Computer, Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard act well enough. Energy is the new leadership and a number of areas, from retail to the cyclicals, are improving," said Frank Gretz's, chief market strategist at Shields & Co.á
"It could be that the Internet and tech guys wonÆt be the only ones to make money from the Internet and tech. Maybe the market will perceive that many old-economy companies, including traditional retail, will do quite well in a new-economy world. And then, so will the stocks," Gretz said.