A year of being dull, for a change - a macro-economic overview of China

Fast growth, low inflation and a crawling Chinese yuan are on the agenda for 2006, with the Chinese currency rising and fluctuating more as market reforms advance. The risks of a sharper slowdown are concentrated in 2007-08.

It looks set to be a really dull year for China in 2006. But dull in a good way. Gone is the excitement of 2005, when analysts battled over the renmninbi, when inflation hawks worried about huge foreign exchange inflows, when Jeremiahs rumbled on about a hard landing and we all worried late into the night about US-China relations. In the end, the renmninbi question now looks settled, inflationary pressures have dissipated, foreign exchange inflows appear to be slowing...

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