FA poll: The CY Leung effect

The race to become Hong Kong’s next chief executive broke with tradition this year. It was loud, heated and unpredictable; a far cry from the rubber-stamping exercise that many old hands had expected.

Henry Tang, who seemed a certainty at the outset, lost in the end (after a bitter contest) to the reserve candidate, CY Leung, who is now busy measuring the chi at Government House. We also wanted to divine the future, so we asked our readers what effect Leung’s election would have on Hong Kong.

The poll results were split fairly evenly, but the leading prediction was that his tenure would have no effect on the special administrative region. To be fair, that is a lot more than can be said about some world leaders. No effect is surely better than the Mugabe effect.

The next best guess was that Hong Kong would come under stronger control from Beijing. Given the ineptitude of the campaign run by China’s preferred candidate, Tang, party officials may well consider whether they need to take a firmer hand in the running of the city.

After all, Leung could hardly be described as popular. He was more favoured among the (non-voting) public, but his nickname — the wolf — suggests that he needs to kiss a lot more babies (without harming them) before people start to warm to him.

In a mock election held on the eve of the real vote, Leung’s popularity was a miserable 17.8%, compared to 80% and 70% enjoyed by the previous two incumbents, Tung Chee-hwa and Donald Tsang, respectively.

Indeed, more respondents reckoned Leung’s leadership would lead to social unrest than to a more equal society, though it was a close call. However, a fifth of respondents said the new chief executive would curtail the influence of Hong Kong’s tycoons.

In fact, that much has almost been promised. According to China’s agreement with the people of Hong Kong, the next election for chief executive, in 2017, will (possibly) be decided by universal suffrage. Let’s wait and see.