Before restarting our online polls after the holiday break, we decided to take a look back at some of last year’s results and compare them against what really happened.
One of our first polls of the year asked about Asia’s economic outlook for 2011, with 53% expecting a better performance than 2010. Our readers were not alone in making that mistake, as the turn of events during 2011 surprised even bearish economists.
Across Asia ex-Japan’s main economies — China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam — growth slumped to 5.7% during 2011, according to forecasts, down from 9.3% in 2010.
Indonesia was the only country in the region to enjoy stronger economic growth in 2011, with a forecast of 6.5% for the full year, up from 6.1% in 2010. At the other end of the table, Thailand’s economy ground to a crawl as floods devastated the country, growing at just 1.7% after posting 7.8% in 2010. Singapore did not fare much better, falling back to 4.8% last year after a booming 14.5% in 2010.
In another poll early in the year, we asked about the character of growth during 2011, with most respondents predicting either a “slow and unremarkable recovery in the global economy” or “record economic growth in Asia”. Just 12% opted for “GFC Redux: The Double Dip”.
Other subjects were easier. At Chinese New Year, our readers made a prediction for the year based on a selection of the rabbit’s unique qualities. They opted for “nervous rabbit”, which symbolised volatility and foretold an uncertain year ahead. That was a good call, so we will revive the question for the year of the dragon to once again test our readers’ psychic abilities.
Our readers were also confident, during the height of the Arab Spring, that the revolutionary fervour would not spread to Asia, and in March predicted that inflation was a bigger threat to Asia than recession, which looks fair enough given the respectable growth during 2011. But the IMF’s leadership scandal threw a spanner in the works, with a slim majority of voters guessing that Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s successor would come from somewhere other than Europe or the US.
By the summer, however, our readers’ views on the economic outlook had become a bit clearer. After some analysts predicted another post-summer rally, we asked readers what they thought — and they were fairly sure that the up-tick would not materialise. Since then, the main indices in Hong Kong and Singapore are down more than 10%. There was a brief rally during October, but not on the scale of the previous two years.
All that remains now is for our readers to tell us what they reckon will happen in 2012. See the poll on the right.
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